Colorado

Seems the older I get the less angry I am. Some of my "Sixties" attitude has definitely mellowed. I now consider myself a realist bordering on optimism. Not Pollyanna, mind you, but maybe some day. I am more able to see environmental progress now than in the past. I still read and write about the problems I perceive in the world, caused by greedy people who inflict harm on our planet for personal gain. But we must recognize and promote our victories as well. You can't motivate people to change if they see nothing wrong (Pollyanna), or if they see nothing right (pessimism).

Consider the The Population Bomb scare of the 1970's. A best seller by Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich, the book forecasts a planet soon to be bloated with people, absent of biodiversity, and rife with war, poverty, and famine, Easter Island on a planetary scale. This bleak prophecy had distinguished proponents and abundant data to back it up. Thus the wide audience. And yet in 2010 the prognosis for planet earth looks considerably more hopeful.

In recent decades the population of virtually all developed countries has leveled off or is declining. The reasons behind this happy turn of events are many, complex, and not entirely understood. And some demographers now predict that third world countries will follow suit by the end of this century and stabilize world population at about 9 billion. If so this would be the best news of our lifetime. There would still be an additional 2 0r 3 billion people to stress the world's space and resources, but this is far fewer than earlier predicted. Consumption by wealthier nations, primarily the U.S., will still need to be adjusted to deal with the increase, but this is an inevitable outgrowth of inhabiting a finite planet. It's just a question of now or later.

It should be noted that this is a best case scenario. Other scientists and demographers predict a human population of 15 billion before growth stabilizes, probably by this century's end. This would present a reality much closer to the earlier "population bomb" forecasts, meaning Ehrlich was right but his timing was off. So perhaps a "cautious optimism" is in order.

The surge flow of Medano Creek, in Great Sand Dunes NP, is endlessly fascinating to visitors and occurs at only one other place in the world where the necessary conditions are met. The water surges into the creek bed in waves (shown above), for several minutes, then sinks beneath the sand. The cycle repeats itself on average about every minute. As dependable as Old Faithful. (next photo)

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Seems the older I get the less angry I am. Some of my "Sixties" attitude has definitely mellowed. I now consider myself a realist bordering on optimism. Not Pollyanna, mind you, but maybe some day. I am more able to see environmental progress now than in the past. I still read and write about the problems I perceive in the world, caused by greedy people who inflict harm on our planet for personal gain. But we must recognize and promote our victories as well. You can't motivate people to change if they see nothing wrong (Pollyanna), or if they see nothing right (pessimism). Consider the The Population Bomb scare of the 1970's. A best seller by Stanford biologist Paul Ehrlich, the book forecasts a planet soon to be bloated with people, absent of biodiversity, and rife with war, poverty, and famine, Easter Island on a planetary scale. This bleak prophecy had distinguished proponents and abundant data to back it up. Thus the wide audience. And yet in 2010 the prognosis for planet earth looks considerably more hopeful. In recent decades the population of virtually all developed countries has leveled off or is declining. The reasons behind this happy turn of events are many, complex, and not entirely understood. And some demographers now predict that third world countries will follow suit by the end of this century and stabilize world population at about 9 billion. If so this would be the best news of our lifetime. There would still be an additional 2 0r 3 billion people to stress the world's space and resources, but this is far fewer than earlier predicted. Consumption by wealthier nations, primarily the U.S., will still need to be adjusted to deal with the increase, but this is an inevitable outgrowth of inhabiting a finite planet. It's just a question of now or later. It should be noted that this is a best case scenario. Other scientists and demographers predict a human population of 15 billion before growth stabilizes, probably by this century's end. This would present a reality much closer to the earlier "population bomb" forecasts, meaning Ehrlich was right but his timing was off. So perhaps a "cautious optimism" is in order. The surge flow of Medano Creek, in Great Sand Dunes NP, is endlessly fascinating to visitors and occurs at only one other place in the world where the necessary conditions are met. The water surges into the creek bed in waves (shown above), for several minutes, then sinks beneath the sand. The cycle repeats itself on average about every minute. As dependable as Old Faithful. (next photo)

© Danny Kimberlin 2015